[Here's a guest post from Jessica K. Lowe, University of Virginia School of Law, "What if Great Britain Had Let the American Colonies Leave with Just a Vote?"]
Yesterday’s vote in Scotland has me
thinking about counterfactuals: what if, in 1776, the thirteen mainland
American colonies had been able to sever their ties with Great Britain by a
vote, instead of war? Yes, I realize that is an unlikely hypothetical,
but humor me for a moment: how might a bloodless revolution at the ballot box
have changed the course of American history?
The vote, of course, would have come
from only a small portion of the real population, since the political franchise
was typically limited to white male property owners. And it would have
probably had to come from the thirteen state assemblies – unless, of course,
the government in London had decided to recognize the Continental Congress and
let them vote on the question, and simply accepted their Declaration of
Independence as the final word.
Nonetheless, what if the question
had ended there – and, with the issuing of the Declaration, King George had
waved goodbye to his colonies and the many royal governors had peacefully
embarked on the long voyage home? Here are a few thoughts.
First: social mobility and democratization. While the
Continental Army drew from the ranks of the colonial elite for its officers –
not just George Washington, but also many others – it in a sense replicated
previously existing social status. But, at the same time, the Army also
opened up avenues for advancement for highly able men of less exalted
backgrounds – General Daniel Morgan, hero of the Battle of Cowpens, is an
example. A backwoods wagon driver from western Virginia, by the end of
the war Morgan, known for his “sharpshooter” troops from Virginia’s frontier,
was a Brigadier General. Officers from various parts of the country also
formed bonds with each other, bonds which they worked to maintain after the war
by organizations like the Society of the Cincinnati. And historians like
Gordon Wood and Allan Kulikoff have argued that over the course of the war
America moved towards a more democratic, egalitarian society, through political
ideas and through violence. Plus, the war itself expelled a number of
Loyalists. With no war, then, there
would have been none of the associated upheaval or forging of cross-country
connections. So no war might have meant an (even less) democratic America
– a condition that would have perhaps had long term consequences for the
character of the nation.
Second: debt. On the other hand, war brought debt –
lots of it. State governments and the Continental Congress issued various
types of paper (certificates, bonds, etc.) to pay soldiers, pay for supplies,
and more. After the war, desperate holders of this paper sold it for a
fraction of its value to speculators, who then, ultimately, began to receive
payments once the various governments began to buckle under pressure to pay
their debts. As historian Woody Holton has argued, the pressure to pay
those debts and the taxes associated with it led to an economic climate that
was very hard on the (resentful) farmers and artisans. This led, in large
part, to some of the tumult of the 1780s, when state legislatures sought to
relieve their burdened populace through measures like paper money; there was
then a backlash against the legislatures, which is linked to the move to
establish a stronger federal government. Without war, there would be no
debt; without debt, would there be a Constitution? Would there have been
other demand for a strong central government? Or would the weak central
government of the Articles of Confederation have limped on?
Third: a bigger country. Would other colonies have
joined up, if freedom meant a vote instead of a bloody battle? Bermuda at
least made noises about supporting the rebellious colonies, so there might have
been at least one more. And who doesn’t want an extra island?
Fourth: slavery. This is hard. As historians have
shown, during the Revolutionary War some American slaves sought to win their
freedom by escaping to the British. How this worked – and the British
response – is complicated, but war opened up a door to seek freedom, one that
was quickly shut afterwards. Some historians have also talked about the
influence of revolutionary rhetoric on struggles for black liberation in the
U.S. and Caribbean. At the same time, the post-war period saw what we
historians call the first emancipation – the move to emancipation in the new
nation, mostly in more northern states, although some noises were made in the
border states (to use an anachronistic term) as well. My hunch is that,
without the war, slavery would have remained even more entrenched, although
that would depend on how one sees the causes of emancipation (political, or
more economic), which is something else scholars have argued about.
As with any counterfactual, of
course, this paints with a broad brush and doesn’t begin to scratch the
surface. But it does seem to me that, even apart from independence
itself, the Revolutionary War was good for America. What do you
think?
